As Mombasa goes up for grabs, pressure piles on Joho to deliver

Mombasa Governor Ali Hassan Joho seems to have chewed back a huge chunk of his words when he finally met a number of “Luo elders” and community opinion-shapers in Mombasa. Joho had in 2015 dismissed a meeting the community called to discuss pertinent issues affecting it.

In today’s meeting, NASA Presidential candidate Raila Odinga was in attendance, so was Wiper Leader Kalonzo Musyoka. The meeting, poorly attended despite massive mobilization, ended without formal endorsement by the group for Joho’s gubernatorial bid, yet that was the reason for it.

Here is what you need to know: As Mombasa goes up for grabs, Governor Joho is under pressure not just to win his seat but deliver the county for ODM, which is increasingly a herculean task.

Mombasa governor believed the Luo, as well as other ‘up country’ groups in Mombasa, would support him regardless of what he offers them. He went at great lengths to isolate the bloc, and in the just concluded ODM nominations, a number of Luo aspirants lost to Joho acolytes.

Where Luos had believed any leader elected on ODM ticket would naturally protect their interests, a series of missteps totally dented the belief. Joho has in the last five years as governor isolated and weakened the tiny Luo elite in Mombasa that was at the core of cementing the historic alliance between the Luo in Mombasa and their hosts, the coastal communities.

Between 2013 and 2016, Joho also did little to strengthen ODM in Mombasa, and started coming out just around the same time he started having publicized spats with Jubilee government officials and President Uhuru. While these spats set him above every other person who was not beefing, they didn’t excite a base that had grown increasingly weary of Joho, seeing his dramatic comeback as merely a ploy to survive the coming election.

Such feelings persist. Including among the critical Luo constituency in Mombasa. This group look back to the golden era of Najib Balala while lamenting the vicissitudes of life under Joho. The few who survived the Joho four-year purge still could not make it in recent ODM nominations politics.

ODM nominations in Mombasa were total charade just as it were elsewhere. In the post-ODM nominations fiasco, the attitude of those who bungled it has been “accept and move on”, or be damned.

In Mombasa, where in 2013 many losers accepted and opted to support the ODM party, this time round majority have either gone independent or chose to use other parties. This has seen the proliferation of small coast-based parties, various pro-NASA parties, independents as well as the Jubilee party.

ODM is still popular but the the reality of NASA has made it possible to contest on other parties while still supporting the presidency bid of Raila Odinga, thus making nonsense the claim that the ODM ‘six-piece’ formation is the only way to support Raila.

Mombasa Senator Hassan Omar has effectively used this to double down on calls of for six piece, preferring to project NASA in Mombasa as being composed of constituent parties each with candidates  requiring fair rules to compete. On this score, Omar, also Wiper Secretary General, is viewed by pro-NASA candidates as more accomodative, the result of which has seen his campaign gain momentum in recent weeks.

On lower seats, apart from ODM candidates, various parties and independent candidates are the new headache for ODM. A case in point is Nyali constituency where former journalist Mohammed Ali is likely to upset governor Joho kin, Said Abdalla Joho, of ODM.

Because of this, the environment for ODM has thinned.

Other up-country communities apart from Luos are identifying with partner parties in NASA. The Kikuyu, seeing Joho as disrespectful of President Uhuru, are with Jubilee candidate, Suleiman Shabhal. Those who don’t support Shabal are supporting Hassan Omar and, or Awiti Bolo.

The Kamba and Luhya are voting for the Wiper candidate Hassan Omar, also as a protest against Joho’s first five years during which he systematically sidelined the two groups.

While handlers of the governor would rather not admit it, preferring instead to project the governor’s bravado, Camp Joho is facing serious challenges. Failure by the Luo community in Mombasa to expressly endorse Joho is just a pointer to the uphill task the governor is facing in convincing the Mombasa electorates that he will deal fairly with them in his second term.

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