One of the most hotly contested seats in the country come 2017 will most likely be Nairobi County governorship. Even with the elections being more than one year away, there are already five people who have expressed interest in the seat, with four of them being viewed as serious candidates. Mike Sonko, the popular Nairobi Senator who loves populist politics, is a favorite of most voters.
Sonko is especially popular with people from low income areas who fortunately for the controversial senator happen to be the majority in Nairobi County. An additional advantage that comes with being popular among these people is that they actually show up at the polling stations and vote as opposed to those from the leafy suburbs such as Karen and Runda who rarely vote.
This poll conducted between 25th and 27th May 2016 found that 37% of Nairobians would vote for Mike Sonko as their next governor while 24% would support Evans Kidero for a second term. The current MP for Dagoretti, Mr. Dennis Waweru got 13% support while Johnson Sakaja, a former member of Vijana na Kibaki and TNA chairman got 7%. Fwamba N.C Fwamba whose candidature was dismissed by most of the respondents as “non-serious” got only 0.5% support.
The belligerent Miguna Miguna who served as Raila Odinga’s advisor till he fell out with the former Prime Minister got 1.5% support. Bishop Margaret Wanjiru who lost the senatorial race to Sonko by a wide margin in 2013 got 8%. CAP found that 9% of Nairobians remain undecided.
Senator Mike Sonko is currently leading in the Nairobi County gubernatorial race by double digits
Sakaja and Waweru have invested heavily in billboards in some strategic locations around the city, but this has not earned them any reasonable support. Mike Sonko who has not shown enthusiasm in the race seems to be wildly popular even as some elites dismiss him as “thuggish,” and “unqualified.” Such dismissal will ultimately mean nothing since elites who last time backed Evans Kidero will find it difficult selling another elite candidate given Kidero’s ethics problem and poor performance.
The sitting governor is currently battling a serious ethics-related case where he is accused of having bribed Supreme Court Justice Philip Tonui with kshs. 200 million to ward off an election petition challenge from Ferdinand Waititu who lost to Kidero by a small margin. The Justice has since been suspended. The bribery scandal seems to have damaged Kidero’s image even among his elite staunch supporter. Voters with roots from Western Kenya also express anger over his poor management of Mumias Sugar, a company he drove to the woods before being elected governor. A media that is shallow and subjective got excited when he vied and marketed him as a better alternative to Waititu who was viewed as “too street” but most voters now feel Waititu would have fared much better as governor.
Kidero’s record does not make his climb any easier with the recent heavy rains having exposed the outdated sewerage system, 15th century drainage, a highly disorganized transport industry, an extremely corrupt county workforce, and a tone-deaf response unit that cannot respond on a timely manner in moments of disaster.
When our pollsters asked voters whether they were concerned with Mike Sonko’s ethics problems, they said they have not heard of any issue other than allegations from his political “detractors.” Voters seem to mind when leaders embezzle money meant for development programs. “Whether one makes his or her money from drugs I do not care,” Simon Gecaga argued. “I care a lot when a leader steals the taxpayers’ money the way Kidero’s administration is doing,” he added. Some people have argued that Sonko would be part of a drug cartel but as Mr. Gecaga stated in his statement above, he does not care about that so long as the taxpayers’ money is not embezzled. Sonko’s stunts such as the Sonko Rescue Team, an independent disaster response team, and the senator’s pompous personality as well as spontaneous generosity were repeatedly cited as part of his broad appeal. It gets better for the senator given the voters’ feeling that he is not pretending but “being himself.”
Sakaja was turned down by many of the respondents who viewed him as “naïve” and “not ready” to deal with Nairobi’s problems. Others view him as an extension of the President and the Deputy President, thereby expressing the view that he is not his own man who can tackle Nairobi’s challenges. He is also viewed by some as quite opportunistic given his decision to leap into the public limelight only recently after spending his time as a TNA operative who has arm-wrestled rivals in the jostling for political party millions. Waweru is viewed as an “entitlement” candidate who expects to harvest the Central Kenya-extended vote given the relatively sizeable number of Kikuyus in the city, and for this reason, many of those who participated in this poll felt he does not deserve this seat. He was dismissed by some youthful participants as “someone suffering from the Mugabe Syndrome,” apparently referring to Mugabe’s feeling that since he led the Zimbabwe liberation struggle, he is entitled to the presidency. Dagoretti voters were particularly bitter and angry, terming him as corrupt and pretentious. “This guy has begun showing up here because the election is around the corner,” one respondent from Dagoretti said. “We cannot wait to replace him with KJ,” a driver from Waweru’s constituency said. KJ is the popular comedian who has vied in Dagoretti before
Bishop Margaret Wanjiru got support from 8% of those who participated with most respondents expressing intense dislike for her.
CAP sampled 2,400 registered voters selected from all the constituencies in Nairobi County. The margin of error is 2.7%. Below is a full breakdown of the poll.
Mike Sonko ……………………….…………….37%
Evans Kidero …………………………………..24%
Dennis Waweru………………………………13%
Margaret Wanjiru………………………….. 8%
Johnson Sakaja………………………………..7%
Miguna Miguna …………………………….1.5%
Fwamba N.C. Fwamba…………………… 0.5%
Undecided………………………………………..9%
Support among Women
Mike Sonko ……………………….…………….51%
Evans Kidero …………………………………..15%
Dennis Waweru………………………………11%
Margaret Wanjiru………………………………4%
Johnson Sakaja………………………………..13%
Miguna Miguna …………………………….1%
Fwamba N.C. Fwamba…………………… 1%
Undecided………………………………………..4%
Support among Men
Mike Sonko ……………………….…………….41%
Evans Kidero …………………………………..22%
Dennis Waweru………………………………16%
Margaret Wanjiru………………………………3%
Johnson Sakaja………………………………..10%
Miguna Miguna …………………………….2%
Fwamba N.C. Fwamba…………………… 1%
Undecided………………………………………..5%
Miguna Miguna managed only 1.5% of the vote. However, his few supporters strongly admire him, stating that they are willing to lose with him. The poll also found that more women, 51% favor Sonko, while Kidero got only 15% of the female support. Only 1% of women supported Miguna Miguna, arguing that he is abusive and verbally violent. Kidero’s low support among women can be attributed to his slapping of the Nairobi Women Representative Rachel Shebesh, a rather shameful act he committed earlier in his leadership. Sonko also led among men with 41%. Though not shown in this poll, Sonko is also wildly popular among those below 35 years where he polled at 64%. Dennis Waweru is second in this group with 15% and Sakaja is third with 12%.
Political elites opposed to Mike Sonko’s candidature have fronted various theories to pour cold water on his bid such as the possibility that Kikuyus who may have supported him in his 2013 senatorial race will this time switch due to the presence of a Kikuyu candidate, in this case, Dennis Waweru. However, it is vital to note that in 2013, Bishop Margaret Wanjiru, a Kikuyu, was in the senatorial race where she garnered 525,000 votes to Sonko’s 808,000. Therefore, it is not entirely honest to argue that Sonko got such a huge number of votes due to the absence of a Kikuyu candidate. Indeed, if such an argument were true, Sonko’s support in this poll would not be as high as it stands, something that has remained stable for a while now.
Another factor that might play a role is party affiliation, but again in some elections, people vote personalities and not parties. Sonko vying as a Jubilee candidate will definitely be a plus but those who expressed support for him were ready to vote for him from any party. Jubilee operatives must be aware that it will be a grave mistake to hand the gubernatorial ticket to anyone other than Sonko, given the massive support he can bring to the party for the president. While will also get some advantage if he gets the Jubilee ticket, but he is a “difficult candidate” as some voters stated, arguing that, “he does not connect with them, and pretends to be listening for political advantage.”
There is every indication that eventually, this race may narrow down to Kidero against Sonko, a race that will be interesting to watch. With the elites and media having been shamed, embarrassed, and let down by Kidero, it is a matter of ‘wait and see’ who’s feet they will drop their lots.
Disclaimer: This is a survey of opinions and not an actual election. CAP has tried its level best to express the views of the participants the exact manner they were relayed. All scientific data processing rules were adhered to. No estimation, guesswork, hearsay or rumours are utilized in CAP surveys.
© Centre for African Progress (CAP), May 28, 2016.
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